On Tuesday, the United States announced mixed economic figures across a few sectors. As a metric to calculate the temperature of the rest of the world, the US market is currently under a microscope. World wide, the market has softened late, while it’s been a bit of a standout in the United States. It can give investors the clue of whether or not the global markets are likely to recover by analyzing the numbers in the United States.
Consumer confidence figures from the Consumer Board came out for the month, with a reading of 125.5 for the October month. This is smaller than the expected figure of 126.9, and it will attract some publicity as consumption drives over 70 per cent of the US economy. If the U.S. sales rate falls, it will have adverse rippling consequences far beyond the U.S. borders and across the world across different economies. Most notably China, which also deals with the situation of trade between the United States and China.
New Home Sales came out in the previous month at 733,000 added. That’s a very positive indicator for the U.S. housing market as only 708,000 new sales are projected to be made. In addition, from 701,000 to the increased 738,000 figure, the prior month was updated upward. This, of course, has a huge domino effect across the U.S. economy, as much of it is linked to housing, whether it is credit, or perhaps other parts of the economy such as furniture, and contractors.
More about “passive investment” than individual selection The Richmond Manufacturing Index came in at-1, much reduced than the expected value of 6. This contrasts sharply with the bullish Empire Manufacturing Index, which shows just how irregular the U.S. economy is. Presently, the market is expected to see the U.S. as bullish, but it’s likely to be one of the circumstances where it’s more about “passive investment” than individual selection, which is going to be very hard.
There are a couple of clear winners in the U.S. like Samsung, Google, and the like, but at this stage, purchasing the index after ETFs is obviously much easier, as most have done for years.
The key take-off is that the U.S. stays positive, but a mixed bag. The market is very likely to keep seeing a lot of volatility at this time, but things are still in a mess, so we should expect volatility and concern to continue to be seen. While the U.S. can just hold on for a while, the rest of the world may join the party, and when it comes to danger appetite we may have another leg higher. If we were to break down as far as US economic figures are concerned, that could send in a downward spiral everything else.